Projections of Extreme Precipitation Amounts for Climate Adaptation Planning in New York State

Extreme precipitation events are already changing across the Northeast, with important implications for infrastructure design, flood risk management, and climate adaptation planning. This webcast presents projected changes in extreme rainfall across New York State, with a focus on how updated precipitation frequency estimates can better reflect observed trends and future climate conditions. Drawing on work from the Northeast Regional Climate Center, the presentation explores historical shifts in return periods, methods for monitoring and updating extreme precipitation statistics, and multiple downscaling approaches used to translate global climate model output to local scales. Results include projected changes in 1-day, 5-year and 100-year storm events under multiple emissions scenarios, as well as a discussion of uncertainties and practical applications. The session also highlights how these projections support implementation of New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act and Climate Risk and Resiliency Act by informing permitting, design, and planning decisions statewide.